Quick Note re Arizona

Something interesting just happened that I wanted to note for Arizona. In small Apache County, a small set of ballots was just released that broke down:


Biden: 1,805(81.2%)
Trump: 396 (17.8%)

This is no surprise–this is an Indian reservation county that swings heavily Dem, and these are probably mail votes to boot. And it’s very little, but it’s very meaningful. Because of the way that the percentages work, Trump gets his votes in relatively larger tranches. So for example, if Trump gets a tranche of votes that gives him a 1,500 vote lead at a 60-40 clip, he has to use up a little more than 7,000 votes to do it. So even though this was over 2,200, a forecaster has to account for Trump needing another 7,000 votes to be counted just to get back to even, much less pass Biden. I suspect that Fox and AP data crunchers have been over the vote carefully and that there are other small tranches of heavily Dem vote around the state–including precincts in Maricopa and Pima that are very heavily Democratic–and have concluded that as votes from the precincts start eating that heavily into the votes, Trump will be unable to get back to even. I have no predictions here, but Fox does, and has been sticking with it.

If you are wondering why this isn’t happening in Pennsylvania, it is because Republicans separated their own vote by refusing to vote by mail. Note, this does not change the number of votes–it only changes the math of how they’re counted. But that’s why Arizona is happening different than Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, what’s happening is that all the outstanding ballots left are mail vote in Clark County, where Las Vegas is. Clark County is already a Democrat leaning county, and again, Republicans self-selected themselves out of the mail process. That Clark takes longer to count its ballots than all the smaller Nevada counties is no surprise at all. But it also means there’s a lot of Democratic votes that haven’t been counted. That’s how we know Nevada is going for Biden.

In Georgia you’re seeing the Pennsylvania process go on at the micro-level. My understanding is that the mail votes being counted throughout the day has trended blue, even in red counties. No surprise–again, Republicans gaslighted themselves into refusing to vote by mail. I expect (but do not know) that Biden will lead Georgia once all those ballots are counted. Note, also, that most of the larger counties in particular will have provisional ballots that are not counted in this process. Those larger counties are heavily Democratic–you do the math. There are also about 8,000-9,000 overseas and military ballots that may come in, but consider that those votes will likely be relatively close, like Georgia. They may shade toward Trump because they include military votes, but if they break, say 60%-40% (a wide margin), that would be about 1,600 votes.

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