8 PM Update

For subscribers only, lol. There are five uncalled states, if you count Arizona despite the Fox and AP calls. Here’s where we are on those:

Pennsylvania – The majority-maker. Biden wins it and it’s really not that close at the end of the day. Maybe tonight depending on when Pennsylvania reports.

Nevada – There’s a little bit of Washoe but most of the vote left to count is Clark County mail. There’s probably very little version of that that’s good for Trump. Plus, someone went on Tucker today to claim that Biden stole Nevada. So, I guess they gave away the ending.

Georgia — I told you not to sleep on Georgia! Will be exceedingly close. Still a true tossup, though Biden’s chances of a lead continue to improve as the votes count. But he’s climbing a narrow path—one batch of bad ballots could end him. The one state potentially close enough to legitimately recount.

Arizona — I’ve said all along that I wasn’t quite sure about the Fox and AP calls for Biden. Now I’ve heard the explanations and—yeah, I think they’re right. But for 2020, it was an extremely gutsy call. I would put this at 90-95% for Biden, but there’s some tail risk until more votes are counted.

North Carolina—Hard to know what’s left to count here or how much it will break to Biden, but it gives Biden a much smaller chance to breakthrough. The gap will narrow but Trump is probably 90% to win it.

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