3 AM Update

States that haven’t been called:

Nevada – What’s left to count is mail ballots in Las Vegas. This is Trump’s high mark there. D hold.

Arizona – Relying mainly here on Fox and AP calls, though noticed that Pima came in with an effective backdrop. D pickup.

Wisconsin: Milwaukee put Biden ahead. Kenosha and Green Bay mail votes will add to Biden’s margin. It’s close, but with so few votes left it’s a Likely D pickup.

Michigan: Still a whole lot of mail ballots left to be counted. Ann Arbor counted theirs and it was 92-8 D. Never thought Michigan would go to Rs, and haven’t seen anything that changes my mind. Likely D pickup.

Pennsylvania: People neither comprehend the number of votes left to count or just how D they are (possibly as much as 80-20). Several counties such as Lackawanna and Dauphin showed Biden improving on Clinton in 2016–maybe not by much, but Trump didn’t win the state by much. There’s a reason they’re going to court to do…something. Not clear what or why. Call it a Lean D just because with more vote outstanding, more can go wrong a la Miami Dade.

Georgia: Georgia is a little unclear regarding how much outstanding ballot is left. But most if not all of it is mail vote, and a substantial amount of it still from the suburbs. The numbers suggest maybe Biden pulls it off, but maybe just the slightest edge to Trump there. But would not be surprised either way.

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